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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 20 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 13 games
31%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 19 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 16 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
755 picks · 481 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 387 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 443 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 601 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 271 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
377 picks · 640 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 754 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
Army Geniuses 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddoninYourdreaM
52% · 69 games56% · 231 game
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderYowe
43% · 274 games47% · 149 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal Beastdb-
50% · 215 games58% · 142 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Rubick
RubickJhocam
50% · 457 games52% · 563 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
42% · 130 games52% · 60 games
IoOli
Io
Game 2prediction correct25:37
Army Geniuses 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYowe
51% · 167 games52% · 243 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Timbersaw
Timbersawdb-
52% · 172 games47% · 219 games
Chaos Knight23savage
Chaos Knight
Marci
MarciinYourdreaM
54% · 299 games53% · 413 games
Death ProphetJabz
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyJhocam
49% · 582 games49% · 305 games
Monkey KingQ
Monkey King
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
43% · 103 games48% · 143 games
IoOli
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 74%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2