?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Varizh · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 6 games
33%

UD Vessuwan

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 13 games
54%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 11 games
27%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
Poloson · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rupido · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 556 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
345 picks · 400 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 669 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
300 picks · 433 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
290 picks · 371 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
287 picks · 341 bans
51%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
259 picks · 554 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:32
Army Geniuses 55%UD Vessuwan 45%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindb-
39% · 157 games62% · 250 games
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAzur4
45% · 270 games53% · 221 game
KunkkaJG
Kunkka
Pugna
PugnawoMy
43% · 56 games52% · 415 games
MarsRupido
Mars
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
49% · 324 games56% · 218 games
Shadow DemonTeehee
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVarizh
44% · 297 games
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Army Geniuses 56%UD Vessuwan 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAzur4
48% · 180 games51% · 204 games
MedusaKen
Medusa
Slark
Slarkdb-
56% · 60 games48% · 166 games
BatriderJG
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
43% · 130 games54% · 216 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
51% · 279 games52% · 308 games
BaneTeehee
Bane
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVarizh
45% · 245 games
Game 3prediction correct26:5
Army Geniuses 58%UD Vessuwan 42%
The model gave 58% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razordb-
45% · 179 games50% · 243 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAzur4
43% · 251 game48% · 437 games
MarsJG
Mars
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
56% · 200 games54% · 165 games
BeastmasterRupido
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
56% · 256 games48% · 252 games
HoodwinkTeehee
Hoodwink
Abaddon
AbaddonVarizh
50% · 211 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 64%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3