Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ZeroTwowin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
db- · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 2 games
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
Linaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Poloson · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 112 bans
Puck
47 picks · 126 bans
Earth Spirit
44 picks · 35 bans
Void Spirit
40 picks · 68 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 69 bans
Phoenix
35 picks · 43 bans
Undying
32 picks · 57 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% ZeroTwo
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:41
Army Geniuses 51%ZeroTwo 49%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiMamangDaya
Arc WardenDreamocel
Pugnadb-
Void SpiritCHYuan
AbaddonwoMy
Slardarxiaoyu154
ClockwerkLym-
Shadow ShamaninYourdreaM
little data
SnapfirePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 52%
Series resultZeroTwo 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1