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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ZeroTwoloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
db- · 2 games
50%

ZeroTwo

Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Dreamocel · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 3 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
inYourdreaM · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
93 picks · 210 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
88 picks · 189 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
84 picks · 63 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
71 picks · 128 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
62 picks · 71 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
60 picks · 31 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
59 picks · 79 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
58 picks · 59 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:41
Army Geniuses 52%ZeroTwo 48%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 58:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMamangDaya
63% · 4 games43% · 3 games
RikiDreamocel
Riki
Pugna
Pugnadb-
little data44% · 8 games
Ember SpiritCHYuan
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordwoMy
57% · 3 gameslittle data
Skywrath MageinYourdreaM
Skywrath Mage
Mirana
MiranaLym-
50% · 4 gameslittle data
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
Legion Commander
little data
LichPoloson
Lich
Game 2prediction missed30:15
Army Geniuses 50%ZeroTwo 50%
The model gave 50% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMamangDaya
little datalittle data
Templar AssassinCHYuan
Templar Assassin
Morphling
Morphlingdb-
little data63% · 4 games
Tidehunterxiaoyu154
Tidehunter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerwoMy
57% · 3 games45% · 7 games
Ember SpiritDreamocel
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLym-
47% · 26 games54% · 15 games
Keeper of the LightPoloson
Keeper of the Light
43% · 3 games
Shadow ShamaninYourdreaM
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed33:25
Army Geniuses 49%ZeroTwo 51%
The model gave 51% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoMamangDaya
little data53% · 7 games
AlchemistDreamocel
Alchemist
Puck
Puckdb-
35% · 31 game62% · 27 games
Void SpiritCHYuan
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixwoMy
54% · 22 gameslittle data
Night Stalkerxiaoyu154
Night Stalker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLym-
44% · 19 games51% · 18 games
Shadow ShamaninYourdreaM
Shadow Shaman
56% · 20 games
UndyingPoloson
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 51%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3