Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 2 games
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Imperial Pro Gaming
Earth Spirit
Muka · 10 games
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 7 games
Chensignature
antoha · 6 games
Iooften banned
antoha · 5 games
Nature's Prophet
SuperNova · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
172 picks · 397 bans
Mars
167 picks · 305 bans
Earth Spirit
157 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
150 picks · 214 bans
Phoenix
131 picks · 150 bans
Keeper of the Light
117 picks · 207 bans
Nyx Assassin
114 picks · 393 bans
Rubick
113 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 63%
Hero pool strength66% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
AS Monaco Gambit 29%Imperial Pro Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaxannii
Void SpiritAskold
Queen of PainLorenof
Death ProphetSuperNova
MarsBlizzy
Elder Titanantoha
Rubickxsvampire
Nyx AssassinMuka
Crystal MaidenPuberrrR
Game 2prediction missed32:22
AS Monaco Gambit 33%Imperial Pro Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerxannii
Void SpiritAskold
PuckLorenof
TidehunterSuperNova
TimbersawBlizzy
Chenantoha
PhoenixPuberrrR
Earth SpiritMuka
Earthshakerxsvampire
Game 3prediction missed26:8
AS Monaco Gambit 30%Imperial Pro Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerxannii
Void SpiritAskold
PuckLorenof
BeastmasterSuperNova
MarsBlizzy
RubickMuka
Earthshakerxsvampire
Chenantoha
Ancient ApparitionPuberrrR
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 78%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3