Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 4 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
478 picks · 279 bans
Mars
400 picks · 547 bans
Queen of Pain
360 picks · 507 bans
Weaver
359 picks · 468 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 510 bans
Kunkka
289 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 360 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
AS Monaco Gambit 54%No Monkey Business 46%
The model gave 54% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 34:43.
Game 2prediction missed46:42
AS Monaco Gambit 54%No Monkey Business 46%
The model gave 54% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 53:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 54%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2