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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
333 · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
ariel · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
333 · 1 game
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
ariel · 1 game
0%

Hydra

Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Actor · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 441 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 262 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 548 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
299 picks · 255 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 396 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 463 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
287 picks · 235 bans
44%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 399 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:23
ASAKURA 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist4IVAN
58% · 102 games53% · 141 game
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Doom
DoompJonn
49% · 141 game47% · 41 game
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter333
58% · 18 games48% · 49 games
VisageActor
Visage
Snapfire
Snapfireariel
44% · 141 game47% · 171 game
ClockwerkLil
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:37
ASAKURA 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa4IVAN
56% · 83 games50% · 70 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Necrophos
NecrophospJonn
30% · 19 games47% · 67 games
KunkkaActor
Kunkka
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter333
44% · 19 games59% · 31 game
Void SpiritEthereal
Void Spirit
Lion
Lionariel
51% · 121 game52% · 74 games
Dark WillowLil
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2