?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Lich
Lich
so bad · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
50%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
393 picks · 318 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 566 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
333 picks · 413 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 450 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:37
ASAKURA 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 28:22.
Game 2prediction missed35:52
ASAKURA 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 1:15:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 60%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2