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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Lich
Lich
so bad · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 28 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 22 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
89%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 17 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 572 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
347 picks · 171 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 777 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 473 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 74%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
ASAKURA 13%Natus Vincere Junior 87%
The model gave 87% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:16.
Game 2prediction missed20:5
ASAKURA 13%Natus Vincere Junior 87%
The model gave 87% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 26:30.
Game 3prediction correct27:41
ASAKURA 13%Natus Vincere Junior 87%
The model gave 87% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:01:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 87%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3