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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 9 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
Xakoda · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 208 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 586 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 743 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 534 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 684 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
340 picks · 298 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 546 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 42%
Hero pool strength65% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:19
ASAKURA 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by One Move in 31:47.
Game 2prediction missed16:30
ASAKURA 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by One Move in 39:33.
Game 3prediction missed13:30
ASAKURA 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by One Move in 29:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 56%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3