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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ascent Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 5 games
20%
Lion
Lion
TrazaM · 5 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
TrazaM · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
TrazaM · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
czy · 3 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 642 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
473 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 585 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
454 picks · 559 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 509 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 791 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
412 picks · 931 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:18
Ascent Esports 11%Execration 89%
The model gave 89% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:12.
Game 2prediction correct33:57
Ascent Esports 11%Execration 89%
The model gave 89% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 40:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 89%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2