ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportswin 1:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTeam8loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ascent Esports
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
Clockwerk
czy · 1 game
Elder Titan
czy · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Razoroften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Team8
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
430 picks · 547 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 369 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 435 bans
Luna
315 picks · 369 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 340 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Team8
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team8
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ascent Esports 36%Team8 64%
The model gave 64% on Team8 — the game was taken by Ascent Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam8 · 64%
Series resultAscent Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1