Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionAASDloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Carstenszwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASD
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% ASD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% ASD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ASD 50%Carstensz 50%
The model gave 50% on ASD — the game was taken by Carstensz.
Game 2prediction missed
ASD 50%Carstensz 50%
The model gave 50% on ASD — the game was taken by Carstensz.
Model check result
Model favoriteASD · 50%
Series resultCarstensz 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2