Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DSDemon Slayerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Marsoften banned
生死 · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
Demon Slayer
Dark Willow
Helios · 3 games
Lion
Helios · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 2 games
Snapfire
Helios · 2 games
Abaddon
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Bane
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Night · 1 game
Clockwerk
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
416 picks · 943 bans
Void Spirit
381 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 704 bans
Mars
328 picks · 550 bans
Grimstroke
312 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 220 bans
Lion
279 picks · 154 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 69%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictioncorrect