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Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 1:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
mercy · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulu · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RedPanda · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
RedPanda · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 1 game
0%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Se · 5 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Se · 4 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 443 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 378 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
229 picks · 302 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 100 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 199 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
192 picks · 361 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 520 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:42
Aster.Aries 35%IHC Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 45:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 65%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1