Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RMREJECT Mayloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Earth Spiritoften banned
mercy · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Ulu · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
生死 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
Snapfire
RedPanda · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
RedPanda · 1 game
Dark Willow
mercy · 1 game
REJECT May
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 372 bans
Centaur Warrunner
225 picks · 296 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 198 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 360 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% REJECT May
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aster.Aries 70%REJECT May 30%
The model gave 70% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 70%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1