Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team MagMaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fantasy · 9 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 1010 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 601 bans
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
310 picks · 494 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 676 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
283 picks · 162 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Team MagMa
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Aster.Aries 56%Team MagMa 44%
The model gave 56% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 56%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1