Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Doomsignature
生死 · 8 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Lion
TK · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 6 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 193 bans
Bane
318 picks · 249 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 676 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 754 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 403 bans
Disruptor
232 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total57% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:23
Aster.Aries 43%Team MagMa 57%
The model gave 57% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 30:05.
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Aster.Aries 43%Team MagMa 57%
The model gave 57% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 49:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 57%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2