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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Mirana
Dy · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 11 games
73%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
439 picks · 770 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1084 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 1012 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 203 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 817 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
371 picks · 541 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 52%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total82% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:46
Aster.Aries 29%Xtreme Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
47% · 558 games51% · 139 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Magnus
MagnusUlu
51% · 139 games57% · 402 games
PangolierPaparazi
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressTK
45% · 417 games52% · 311 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Marci
Marci生死
48% · 364 games47% · 511 games
RubickKaka
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
49% · 204 games53% · 319 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct12:40
Aster.Aries 31%Xtreme Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
53% · 95 games47% · 97 games
AlchemistGhost
Alchemist
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker生死
46% · 58 games50% · 34 games
SlardarJT-
Slardar
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
51% · 186 games48% · 175 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageTK
48% · 150 games55% · 138 games
BatriderKaka
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
49% · 117 games52% · 162 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 82%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2