Astini+5 vs HULIGANI — prediction PSP · Dota 2

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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3

result vs prediction

Astini+5loss 0:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 0:2

HULIGANIwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

No games played over 6 months.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunnersignature

Bb3px · 45 games

69%

Marsoften banned

Bb3px · 43 games

47%

Jakirooften banned

RESPECT · 37 games

46%

Skywrath Magesignature

slimeyao · 37 games

68%

Shadow Demonsignature

slimeyao · 35 games

60%

Chensignature

RESPECT · 34 games

68%

Dragon Knightsignature

erase · 32 games

75%

Snapfire

RESPECT · 30 games

47%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

592 picks · 816 bans

49%

Tiny

530 picks · 551 bans

49%

Tusk

428 picks · 396 bans

48%

Warlock

427 picks · 296 bans

49%

Shadow Demon

389 picks · 1021 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

384 picks · 659 bans

59%

Mars

369 picks · 585 bans

47%

Centaur Warrunner

348 picks · 518 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%

Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% HULIGANI

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct17:31

Astini+5 47%HULIGANI 53%

The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 54:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo