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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5win 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LiXO eSportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 4 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
DM · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
4nalog · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%

LiXO eSports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
zenica · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
eva · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 1 game
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
eva · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Garbat1y · 1 game
100%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Rayx · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 566 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
441 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 677 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 594 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% LiXO eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:7
Astini+5 71%LiXO eSports 29%
The model gave 71% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 25:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
49% · 396 games47% · 148 games
Kezeva
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
50% · 353 games52% · 226 games
LeshracRayx
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderDM
58% · 312 games45% · 165 games
Razorzenica
Razor
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
49% · 558 games47% · 641 game
Tuskaguwa
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
54% · 383 games50% · 822 games
JakiroGarbat1y
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed34:27
Astini+5 72%LiXO eSports 28%
The model gave 72% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by LiXO eSports in 1:09:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
49% · 119 games57% · 146 games
Clinkzeva
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTA2000
44% · 424 games50% · 519 games
Storm SpiritRayx
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordDM
50% · 234 games54% · 296 games
Bristlebackzenica
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
54% · 370 games47% · 655 games
TuskGarbat1y
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
46% · 649 games48% · 180 games
Skywrath Mageaguwa
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct44:25
Astini+5 71%LiXO eSports 29%
The model gave 71% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 54:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
54% · 124 games48% · 279 games
Muertaeva
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
48% · 176 games47% · 163 games
InvokerRayx
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
52% · 146 games54% · 109 games
Enigmazenica
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
47% · 401 game53% · 256 games
Marciaguwa
Marci
Tusk
TuskDaze
46% · 413 games52% · 453 games
Shadow ShamanGarbat1y
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 87%
Series resultAstini+5 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3