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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Astini+5loss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Astini+5

Tusk
Tusksignature
Daze · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Daze · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
DM · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
4nalog · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 3 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 3 games
67%

Pipsqueak+4

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 48 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 44 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
51%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 34 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
58%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 813 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
555 picks · 574 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 400 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 294 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1046 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 597 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 512 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Astini+5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Astini+5
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:32
Astini+5 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
54% · 93 games46% · 171 game
WeaverLowskill
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
47% · 467 games54% · 282 games
BristlebackMalik
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDM
43% · 179 games46% · 536 games
TinyCopy
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
55% · 399 games51% · 471 game
WarlockEkki
Warlock
Tusk
TuskDaze
50% · 657 games55% · 335 games
Shadow Shamanaik
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct41:28
Astini+5 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Astini+5 in 1:18:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
43% · 327 games58% · 310 games
Templar AssassinLowskill
Templar Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
45% · 263 games56% · 244 games
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
42% · 139 games50% · 230 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
52% · 338 games54% · 364 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorSoNNeikO
44% · 410 games56% · 329 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed38:45
Astini+5 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on Astini+5 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
54% · 313 games43% · 359 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
57% · 530 games50% · 492 games
BeastmasterLowskill
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tiny4nalog
50% · 544 games47% · 531 game
MarsMalik
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
43% · 226 games54% · 422 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
49% · 721 game52% · 530 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAstini+5 · 55%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3