Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAstronautsloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astronauts
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 935 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 567 bans
Mars
326 picks · 606 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 575 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Astronauts
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
Astronauts 48%Team Bald Reborn 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:20.
Game 2prediction missed11:39
Astronauts 48%Team Bald Reborn 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Astronauts in 35:24.
Game 3prediction correct46:35
Astronauts 48%Team Bald Reborn 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 1:18:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 52%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3