ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionACAtlantic Citywin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEMouth Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlantic City
Beastmasteroften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Fly · 1 game
Hoodwink
Lelis · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Mouth Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 2 games
Muerta
N1NE · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Ogre Magi
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Cucahook · 1 game
Phoenix
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 593 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 596 bans
Dark Willow
295 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Atlantic City
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Atlantic City
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Atlantic City 84%Mouth Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Atlantic City — the game was taken by Atlantic City.
Game 2prediction correct
Atlantic City 84%Mouth Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Atlantic City — the game was taken by Atlantic City.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantic City · 84%
Series resultAtlantic City 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2