Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlantisloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Flowwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Team Flow
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
Rubick
czy · 4 games
Tiny
Mercury · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Lion
czy · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Unknown- · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
619 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
547 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
532 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
428 picks · 513 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 374 bans
Snapfire
357 picks · 199 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Atlantis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Atlantis 52%Team Flow 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Team Flow in 35:45.
Game 2prediction missed25:32
Atlantis 52%Team Flow 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Team Flow in 41:53.
Game 3prediction missed43:29
Atlantis 52%Team Flow 48%
The model gave 52% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Team Flow in 42:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 52%
Series resultTeam Flow 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3