Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Atlas Burdenloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atlas Burden
Dark Willow
OneJey · 2 games
Enchantress
Panto · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Alchemist
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
iseedeadpeople · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 1 game
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 8 games
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
Pugnasignature
Malady · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
258 picks · 310 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 236 bans
Treant Protector
217 picks · 472 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 283 bans
Nature's Prophet
187 picks · 458 bans
Muerta
185 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength66% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
Atlas Burden 35%Natus Vincere 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidiseedeadpeople
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Spirit BreakerCloud
Necrophosmellojul
SnapfireHellscream
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Ancient ApparitionPanto
PhoenixMalady
53% · 102 games
Dark WillowZayac
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Atlas Burden 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeiseedeadpeople
BrewmasterNefrit
DawnbreakerCloud
UrsaShigetsu
PhoenixHellscream
Puckmellojul
TuskPanto
Nature's ProphetMalady
60% · 7 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Game 3prediction correct18:41
Atlas Burden 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanCloud
BrewmasterNefrit
Phantom Assassiniseedeadpeople
UrsaShigetsu
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Pangoliermellojul
GrimstrokeHellscream
BaneZayac
61% · 37 games
PugnaMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3