Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportsloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Marb · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
353 picks · 324 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 280 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
250 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 541 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 577 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:35
Atomic Esports 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMarb
SniperFortuneSoul
TinyNishababy
TidehunterEnryu
50% · 102 games
UndyingHated
Game 2prediction correct31:39
Atomic Esports 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMarb
Faceless VoidFortuneSoul
LinaNishababy
Dragon KnightEnryu
38% · 12 games
Ancient ApparitionHated
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 57%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2