Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Attack on Titanloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Block Roar Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Attack on Titan
Abaddonoften banned
hFn · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Lich
Mandy · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
hFn · 1 game
Mirana
RdO · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
RdO · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mandy · 1 game
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
432 picks · 708 bans
Death Prophet
401 picks · 790 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 297 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
Attack on Titan 41%Block Roar Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Attack on Titan in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinhFn
Nature's ProphetNaoG
Tinymurd0c
RubickRdO
LichMandy
Game 2prediction correct9:48
Attack on Titan 42%Block Roar Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladehFn
Faceless VoidNaoG
Invokermurd0c
TinyRdO
GyrocopterMandy
Game 3prediction correct24:39
Attack on Titan 46%Block Roar Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Block Roar Esports in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernauthFn
Naga SirenNaoG
Leshracmurd0c
DisruptorMandy
Nyx AssassinRdO
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 59%
Series resultBlock Roar Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3