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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 32 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 26 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 367 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
423 picks · 462 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 839 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 874 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 535 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 510 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 627 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:27
Aurora Gaming 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
49% · 52 games43% · 10 games
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
54% · 120 games55% · 92 games
Primal BeastCloud
Primal Beast
Visage
VisageJabz
41% · 34 games52% · 60 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
46% · 50 gameslittle data
Tinkerswedenstrong
Tinker
Omniknight
OmniknightOli
63% · 22 games45% · 116 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct30:28
Aurora Gaming 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 56:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
48% · 266 games57% · 91 game
SlarkMunkushi~
Slark
Invoker
InvokerLorenof
47% · 138 games47% · 274 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderJabz
46% · 351 game52% · 383 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyQ
53% · 462 games45% · 386 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Bane
BaneOli
59% · 116 games48% · 199 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2