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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 20 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 706 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 414 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
412 picks · 327 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 878 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 956 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 431 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
Aurora Gaming 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetkiyotaka
53% · 107 games47% · 242 games
TinyMunkushi~
Tiny
Sven
SvenTA2000
44% · 192 games54% · 126 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 233 games50% · 227 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
52% · 95 games57% · 61 game
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockPanto
46% · 125 games53% · 96 games
MiranaHduo
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct23:21
Aurora Gaming 69%1w Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
50% · 345 games57% · 99 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
51% · 151 game49% · 137 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 80 games53% · 287 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockPanto
48% · 100 games48% · 171 game
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
42% · 67 games59% · 49 games
Rikiswedenstrong
Riki
Game 3prediction correct40:22
Aurora Gaming 71%1w Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
49% · 406 games40% · 169 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 211 games46% · 510 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
65% · 122 games52% · 126 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskMira
52% · 231 game50% · 313 games
Muertaswedenstrong
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 173 games58% · 25 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 86%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3