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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
75%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 27 games
74%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 773 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
459 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 555 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 686 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 568 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 455 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
320 picks · 889 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total58% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
Aurora Gaming 51%1w Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
50% · 172 games55% · 460 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 377 games52% · 588 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsWs
43% · 357 games56% · 404 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockKaori
42% · 392 games55% · 204 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 504 games50% · 146 games
Skywrath MageRein
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed7:23
Aurora Gaming 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
47% · 60 games53% · 308 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
48% · 456 games55% · 194 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Axe
AxeWs
49% · 250 games58% · 329 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
46% · 422 games54% · 121 game
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
46% · 272 games44% · 508 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct25:10
Aurora Gaming 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
46% · 201 game53% · 182 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
48% · 332 games55% · 280 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
49% · 198 games44% · 88 games
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Lion
LionMira
45% · 86 games57% · 157 games
ChenRein
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
52% · 162 games50% · 272 games
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3