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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 56 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 49 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 44 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 38 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 31 game
68%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 30 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
41%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 29 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
680 picks · 839 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 567 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 423 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
472 picks · 333 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1146 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 686 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 618 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
393 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Aurora Gaming 69%1w Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNightfall
57% · 195 games48% · 406 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierWs
44% · 415 games55% · 311 games
Bristlebackv1olent-
Bristleback
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 485 games50% · 365 games
Batriderмистер мораль
Batrider
Rubick
RubickMira
54% · 85 games49% · 597 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 761 game46% · 262 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed12:31
Aurora Gaming 71%1w Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
47% · 55 games51% · 156 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
51% · 464 games50% · 540 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordWs
44% · 256 games53% · 267 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 505 games52% · 190 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 366 games49% · 493 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct28:41
Aurora Gaming 70%1w Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:12:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
53% · 202 games48% · 552 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
50% · 328 games52% · 157 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Viper
ViperWs
55% · 107 games49% · 243 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
44% · 381 game50% · 64 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickMira
54% · 65 games46% · 67 games
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3