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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 47 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 29 games
48%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 21 game
71%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 43 games
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 19 games
42%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
bzm · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Rein · 17 games
65%
Largo
Largosignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
527 picks · 318 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
438 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
390 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 310 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 506 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 300 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 509 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 139 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:44
Aurora Gaming 52%1w Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:17:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
51% · 213 games52% · 114 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWs
41% · 155 games52% · 203 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMikoto
52% · 173 games52% · 156 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
46% · 361 game56% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesKaori
46% · 276 games53% · 554 games
HoodwinkWhitemon
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct44:42
Aurora Gaming 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 54:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
48% · 174 games45% · 151 game
KezPure~
Kez
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMikoto
48% · 211 games53% · 278 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaWs
51% · 106 games55% · 26 games
Night Stalker33
Night Stalker
Warlock
WarlockKaori
51% · 247 games51% · 315 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
58% · 110 games45% · 78 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2