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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
Q · 12 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 11 games
55%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
91%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
45%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
young G · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 730 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
383 picks · 879 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 670 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1020 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Aurora Gaming 74%ASAKURA 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
54% · 117 games45% · 93 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
55% · 127 games50% · 195 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTORONTOTOKYO
39% · 121 game56% · 240 games
MagnusVladikTheHtiviy
Magnus
Warlock
WarlockPanto
42% · 92 games58% · 62 games
Keeper of the Lightslimeyao
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskMira
42% · 179 games62% · 46 games
Ancient ApparitionVaniLLl
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:36
Aurora Gaming 73%ASAKURA 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
53% · 37 games44% · 95 games
Nature's Prophet7jesu
Nature's Prophet
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 167 games56% · 154 games
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Bristleback
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 103 games56% · 122 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskMira
49% · 310 games45% · 145 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
43% · 3 games53% · 104 games
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 89%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2