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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 21 game
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
75%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
asdekor_r · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 766 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 343 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 551 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 674 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 570 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 458 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 888 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:38
Aurora Gaming 68%AVULUS 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:09:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikoto
56% · 261 game45% · 266 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
55% · 244 games48% · 227 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 288 games53% · 220 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Riki
RikiMira
50% · 56 games50% · 125 games
Dazzleasdekor_r
Dazzle
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
41% · 146 games48% · 157 games
WindrangerWein
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Aurora Gaming 65%AVULUS 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
37% · 16 games50% · 44 games
ClinkzSmiling Knight
Clinkz
Axe
AxeWs
53% · 124 games49% · 398 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
53% · 296 games54% · 249 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
50% · 388 games45% · 113 games
Skywrath MageWein
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
48% · 107 games50% · 127 games
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2