DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Bleed Esports
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 355 bans
Phoenix
249 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
204 picks · 524 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:17
Aurora Gaming 61%Bleed Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 48:37.
Game 2prediction missed34:14
Aurora Gaming 61%Bleed Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 50:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 61%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2