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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Cyber Gooseloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
74%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%

Cyber Goose

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
prblms · 7 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 584 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
364 picks · 741 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 509 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
329 picks · 763 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
319 picks · 280 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 81%
Hero pool strength54% Cyber Goose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Aurora Gaming 69%Cyber Goose 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
53% · 211 games47% · 123 games
LinaTA2000
Lina
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkiyotaka
50% · 40 games48% · 250 games
BeastmasterNoticed
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 287 games44% · 271 game
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Oracle
OraclePanto
59% · 60 games44% · 124 games
Rubickprblms
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
48% · 319 games51% · 149 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct28:25
Aurora Gaming 68%Cyber Goose 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
51% · 178 games46% · 239 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
53% · 340 games54% · 338 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 189 games47% · 376 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
51% · 250 games47% · 227 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskMira
52% · 429 games45% · 206 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Aurora Gaming 67%Cyber Goose 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
54% · 303 games42% · 203 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 103 games43% · 261 game
TerrorbladeNoticed
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 305 games50% · 391 game
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
58% · 206 games49% · 85 games
SilencerSolo
Silencer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
57% · 228 games46% · 205 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 80%
Series resultAurora Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3