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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 14 games
36%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
35%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 731 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 366 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 519 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1037 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
409 picks · 931 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 538 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
Aurora Gaming 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLorenof
45% · 99 games49% · 198 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
52% · 306 games47% · 145 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 82 games59% · 43 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Lion
LionMira
55% · 276 games48% · 246 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 104 games55% · 235 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed15:32
Aurora Gaming 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 81 game44% · 96 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Sniper
SniperLorenof
50% · 151 game50% · 288 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 169 games55% · 200 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaMira
45% · 213 games56% · 122 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
52% · 120 games47% · 28 games
SilencerMalady
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2