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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 29 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 21 game
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 19 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
71%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 32 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 24 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 488 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 558 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
417 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 573 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
283 picks · 395 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 168 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
274 picks · 588 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 466 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total52% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Aurora Gaming 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNightfall
48% · 124 games52% · 67 games
LinaWatson
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
47% · 189 games48% · 258 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 112 games56% · 100 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Io
IoPanto
42% · 39 games49% · 89 games
Nature's ProphettOfu
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
48% · 77 games63% · 27 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed42:15
Aurora Gaming 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
47% · 53 games51% · 52 games
LinaWatson
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
49% · 322 games49% · 111 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 185 games58% · 172 games
Monkey KingQuinn
Monkey King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
55% · 121 game40% · 192 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Riki
RikiMira
53% · 65 games48% · 219 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct45:45
Aurora Gaming 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:03:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 360 games51% · 134 games
KunkkaQuinn
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
46% · 42 games49% · 268 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
60% · 138 games54% · 149 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
34% · 12 games48% · 133 games
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskMira
46% · 270 games49% · 138 games
RingmasterMalady
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 52%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3