DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
Mirana
Skem · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
Lion
Skem · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 600 bans
Techies
364 picks · 290 bans
Mars
362 picks · 559 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
343 picks · 706 bans
Hoodwink
328 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:18
Aurora Gaming 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 30:14.
Game 2prediction correct24:16
Aurora Gaming 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 46:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 55%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2