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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Groomifyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 12 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
82%

Groomify

Bane
Bane
Teehee · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 383 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 545 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 489 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 609 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 201 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 413 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 585 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
343 picks · 868 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Aurora Gaming 85%Groomify 15%
The model gave 85% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
43% · 160 games46% · 98 games
LifestealerKarma丶
Lifestealer
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
45% · 110 games46% · 126 games
DawnbreakerYoungGodLevi
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingAbed
57% · 75 games52% · 221 game
LionPlayHard
Lion
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQ
52% · 23 games
Pugna
PugnaOli
61% · 77 games
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Aurora Gaming 86%Groomify 14%
The model gave 86% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalos
59% · 111 games47% · 320 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckAbed
52% · 199 games47% · 222 games
MagnusKarma丶
Magnus
Doom
DoomJabz
50% · 187 games50% · 396 games
Shadow DemonPlayHard
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionQ
51% · 222 games
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
49% · 219 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 98%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2