FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 14 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
Hoodwink
Q · 12 games
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 12 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 29 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Muerta
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 418 bans
Batrider
444 picks · 541 bans
Phoenix
437 picks · 519 bans
Clockwerk
436 picks · 567 bans
Lion
436 picks · 232 bans
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 767 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Aurora Gaming 44%Heroic 56%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPalos
LycanWisper
SniperAbed
Earthshaker4nalog
Primal BeastJabz
BristlebackYuma
ClockwerkQ
MuertaScofield
Shadow DemonOli
DisruptorKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 58%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1