?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 42 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 30 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 29 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
64%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 28 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 20 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 536 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
441 picks · 493 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
438 picks · 231 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
392 picks · 292 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 357 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
369 picks · 807 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 517 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 527 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total70% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:13
Aurora Gaming 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
46% · 226 games55% · 208 games
DoomYuma
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 194 games52% · 206 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
47% · 209 games57% · 170 games
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Dazzle
DazzlePanto
49% · 51 game46% · 201 game
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 205 games50% · 100 games
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed8:29
Aurora Gaming 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 230 games50% · 110 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 290 games59% · 128 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
47% · 118 games54% · 229 games
Magnus4nalog
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
45% · 221 game44% · 202 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BanePanto
52% · 52 games51% · 242 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct50:34
Aurora Gaming 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:03:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
44% · 141 game56% · 93 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
49% · 136 games50% · 346 games
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 209 games50% · 128 games
Kunkka4nalog
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 296 games51% · 183 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockPanto
47% · 207 games52% · 239 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 70%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3