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BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 64 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 60 games
62%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 57 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 48 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 48 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 38 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
89%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 7 games
71%
Kez
Kezsignature
TaiLung · 6 games
83%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
KJ · 6 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 6 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Wisper · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
612 picks · 383 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
503 picks · 278 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
498 picks · 586 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 397 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 577 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 954 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
339 picks · 888 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:14
Aurora Gaming 60%LGD Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNightfall
56% · 66 games51% · 175 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
57% · 413 games50% · 30 games
SniperTaiLung
Sniper
Underlord
UnderlordWs
47% · 247 games50% · 435 games
TinyYuma
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
44% · 299 games49% · 96 games
TechiesThiolicor
Techies
Lion
LionMira
50% · 150 games49% · 439 games
HoodwinkKJ
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed14:49
Aurora Gaming 61%LGD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 49:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 294 games42% · 128 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Largo
LargoWs
55% · 94 games53% · 382 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 293 games53% · 168 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 146 games48% · 87 games
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 180 games55% · 242 games
AxeKJ
Axe
Game 3prediction missed46:45
Aurora Gaming 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:51:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
48% · 202 games65% · 9 games
Vengeful SpiritYuma
Vengeful Spirit
Largo
LargoWs
47% · 45 games35% · 29 games
ZeusTaiLung
Zeus
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
49% · 109 games54% · 357 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
45% · 30 games45% · 81 game
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 267 games62% · 177 games
BaneKJ
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3