The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MANTA Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
MANTA Esports
Death Prophetoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
449 picks · 678 bans
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 195 bans
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 545 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 425 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 583 bans
Rubick
347 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 641 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 843 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
Aurora Gaming 96%MANTA Esports 4%
The model gave 96% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 29:00.
Game 2prediction missed30:6
Aurora Gaming 96%MANTA Esports 4%
The model gave 96% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 21:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 96%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2