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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 32 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
94%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 265 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
481 picks · 483 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
364 picks · 991 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 376 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
301 picks · 514 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
301 picks · 146 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
300 picks · 493 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 227 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Aurora Gaming 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
39% · 150 games51% · 59 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckMikoto
49% · 304 games51% · 343 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 72 games55% · 221 game
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
47% · 165 games51% · 162 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroOli
51% · 142 games65% · 48 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction missed20:26
Aurora Gaming 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 182 games51% · 198 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 166 games55% · 135 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
48% · 346 games56% · 189 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
45% · 259 games50% · 302 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroOli
47% · 262 games51% · 391 game
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed21:30
Aurora Gaming 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
51% · 91 game48% · 59 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 292 games45% · 195 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
52% · 253 games55% · 137 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
54% · 190 games52% · 174 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterMira
49% · 150 games50% · 411 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3