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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 28 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 27 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 40 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
677 picks · 328 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 585 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
444 picks · 228 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 1162 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 653 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 254 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 157 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 399 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
Aurora Gaming 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
49% · 174 games53% · 348 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
48% · 275 games53% · 333 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 236 games55% · 119 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 278 games45% · 193 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroOli
47% · 252 games54% · 222 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Aurora Gaming 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 209 games53% · 122 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
52% · 348 games56% · 157 games
LycanBOOM
Lycan
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 226 games46% · 247 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
49% · 191 game45% · 361 game
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
46% · 289 games52% · 376 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed20:23
Aurora Gaming 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
50% · 206 games49% · 209 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 267 games54% · 291 game
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarMikoto
53% · 109 games43% · 276 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
62% · 138 games43% · 174 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 263 games44% · 33 games
Grimstrokeyamich
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3