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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 47 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 41 game
63%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 37 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 31 game
81%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
59%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 74 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 43 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 41 game
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 37 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
580 picks · 918 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 506 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
425 picks · 281 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1034 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 573 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 663 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 557 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Aurora Gaming 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
58% · 213 games50% · 314 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
50% · 246 games43% · 165 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 383 games43% · 395 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionMira
49% · 72 games54% · 26 games
TechiesImmortalFaith
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
54% · 155 games51% · 169 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Aurora Gaming 61%MOUZ 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
55% · 218 games46% · 363 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
56% · 296 games43% · 135 games
RazorMidOne
Razor
Mars
MarsWs
49% · 331 game47% · 103 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Lion
LionMira
50% · 66 games48% · 238 games
BatriderBOOM
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
64% · 72 games44% · 144 games
ClockwerkImmortalFaith
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2