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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 21 game
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 17 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
498 picks · 577 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 443 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
459 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
358 picks · 723 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
325 picks · 742 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
323 picks · 503 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 267 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:19
Aurora Gaming 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 51:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightNightfall
47% · 29 games50% · 137 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkiyotaka
48% · 22 games50% · 69 games
SniperCopy
Sniper
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 200 games52% · 74 games
KunkkaBOOM
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
42% · 167 games61% · 73 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Oracle
OraclePanto
38% · 18 games61% · 83 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed18:48
Aurora Gaming 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
44% · 215 games49% · 138 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Omniknight
OmniknightTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 68 games47% · 280 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
46% · 382 games53% · 191 game
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
48% · 202 games51% · 171 game
BatriderAri
Batrider
Bane
BaneMira
67% · 48 games50% · 135 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct33:8
Aurora Gaming 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
44% · 148 games51% · 45 games
RazorYuragi
Razor
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkiyotaka
44% · 26 games52% · 129 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Axe
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
39% · 27 games51% · 131 game
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanto
57% · 91 game54% · 63 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
53% · 124 games46% · 48 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3