BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
Tusk
Mira · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
570 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
507 picks · 512 bans
Puck
379 picks · 1045 bans
Pugna
340 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 170 bans
Mars
334 picks · 566 bans
Warlock
334 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
321 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Aurora Gaming 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonNightfall
Svengotthejuice
Nature's ProphetMikoto
TimbersawNiku
Night StalkerTORONTOTOKYO
Underlordpma
EnchantressOli
WarlockRiddys
TuskMira
Shadow DemonZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1